What Is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you expect to win or lose per bet if you made the same bet thousands of times. It's the mathematical foundation of profitable betting.
Positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable long-term. Negative EV (-EV) means you'll lose money over time. Even if you win individual negative EV bets, you'll lose eventually.
Professional bettors only make positive EV bets. They know individual bets might lose, but the mathematics guarantee profit over a large number of bets.
Calculating Expected Value
EV = (Win Probability × Profit if Win) - (Loss Probability × Amount Lost). Let's say you bet $10 on odds of 2.50 and believe you have a 45% chance of winning.
EV = (0.45 × $15) - (0.55 × $10) = $6.75 - $5.50 = +$1.25. This bet has a positive expected value of $1.25 per $10 staked. Over time, you'll average $1.25 profit per bet.
If the same bet had only a 35% win probability: EV = (0.35 × $15) - (0.65 × $10) = $5.25 - $6.50 = -$1.25. This would be a losing bet long-term.
Thinking in EV Terms
Once you understand EV, you'll evaluate bets differently. A lost bet isn't necessarily bad if it was +EV. A winning bet isn't necessarily good if it was -EV.
Focus on making good decisions, not on individual outcomes. If you consistently find +EV bets, profits will follow. This mindset separates recreational bettors from profitable ones.