Betting Strategy Simulator

Monte Carlo simulation to compare betting strategies, analyze risk of ruin, and optimize your bankroll management.

Strategy Simulator

Configure your betting parameters and run thousands of simulations to understand how different strategies perform over time.

Choose a staking strategy to simulate
Your starting bankroll amount
Base bet amount (flat betting) or starting unit
Average decimal odds for your bets
%
Your expected win percentage
How many bets to simulate per run
Number of simulation runs (more = more accurate)
Cap on stake size for progressive strategies
1.0 = Full Kelly, 0.5 = Half Kelly (recommended)
%
Percentage of current bankroll to stake
Stop if bankroll drops below this (0 = disabled)
Stop if bankroll reaches this (0 = disabled)

Understanding Betting Strategy Simulation

This advanced simulator helps you understand the real-world implications of different betting strategies before risking real money.

Why Monte Carlo?

Unlike simple expected value calculations, Monte Carlo simulation accounts for variance and path dependency. It shows you not just the average outcome, but the full range of possibilities including rare but devastating losing streaks.

Key Risk Metrics

  • Risk of Ruin: Probability of losing your entire bankroll. Even 5% is significant over thousands of bets.
  • Maximum Drawdown: The largest peak-to-trough decline. Psychologically important for staying the course.
  • Losing Streaks: Long losing streaks are inevitable. Plan your bankroll to survive them.

Practical Advice

  • Kelly Criterion is theoretically optimal but can be aggressive. Consider using half-Kelly (0.5 fraction) for more conservative growth.
  • Martingale and Fibonacci can seem safe in short runs but have catastrophic long-term failure rates.
  • Flat betting is boring but reliable. If you have a positive edge, it will eventually show in the results.

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How to Find Value Bets

Frequently Asked Questions

It depends on your odds. At odds of 2.00, you need greater than 50% win rate. At 1.50, you need greater than 66.7%. The break-even win rate is 1/odds. Any win rate above this gives you a positive edge.

Yes. While Martingale guarantees profit on any single sequence, the stake sizes grow exponentially. A 10-bet losing streak (which happens more often than you think) requires 1024x your base stake. Most bankrolls or betting limits cannot handle this.

Kelly Criterion is a formula that calculates the optimal stake to maximize long-term growth rate. It is mathematically sound but requires accurate knowledge of your true win rate. Many professionals use fractional Kelly (25-50% of full Kelly) for smoother growth with less variance.

1000 simulations provide a good balance between accuracy and speed. For important decisions, 5000 simulations give more precise percentile estimates. Beyond that, the additional precision is minimal.