What Is Value in Betting?
A value bet occurs when the probability of an outcome is higher than what the odds suggest. If you believe a team has a 50% chance of winning but the odds imply only 40%, there's value.
Value doesn't mean the bet will win - it means the price is favorable. A 50% chance at 40% implied odds is +EV. You'll profit over many such bets even though you'll lose half of them.
The key is accurately assessing the true probability. If you're wrong about that 50% estimate, the bet might not actually have value.
How to Find Value
First, develop your own probability estimate for an outcome. This requires research, analysis, and expertise in your chosen sport or market.
Second, convert the bookmaker's odds to implied probability. Compare this to your estimate. If your probability is higher, you've potentially found value.
Third, be honest about your edge. Markets are efficient - if everyone sees the same value, it's probably priced in. You need information or analysis others lack.
Avoiding False Value
High odds don't automatically mean value. A 10.00 longshot might look attractive, but if the true probability is only 5%, you're getting terrible value.
Similarly, low odds can still offer value. Odds of 1.30 might seem unappealing, but if the true win probability is 85%, you've found excellent value on a strong favorite.