Expected Value (EV) Calculator

Calculate the expected value of any bet to identify value betting opportunities.

EV Calculator

Enter the decimal odds, your estimated probability of winning, and optionally your stake to calculate the expected value of your bet.

The decimal odds offered by the bookmaker (must be greater than 1).
Your estimated probability of the outcome occurring (0-100%).
The amount you plan to wager. Defaults to 1 if not specified.
Used only for display. Calculations are currency-agnostic.

Understanding Expected Value in Betting

Expected Value is the cornerstone of profitable betting. It helps you identify bets where the odds offered are better than they should be based on the true probability of an outcome.

How Expected Value is calculated

EV is calculated using the formula: EV = (Probability × Odds - 1) × Stake. The EV percentage removes the stake factor: EV% = (Probability × Odds - 1) × 100. A positive result indicates a value bet.

Why use an EV calculator?

  • It helps you make data-driven betting decisions rather than emotional ones.
  • It identifies value bets that offer long-term profitability.
  • It helps you avoid bets with negative expected value.

Common mistakes when calculating EV

  • Overestimating your probability predictions without proper research.
  • Ignoring bookmaker margins when estimating true probabilities.
  • Expecting short-term results to match long-term EV predictions.

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How to Find Value Bets

Frequently Asked Questions

A value bet is a bet where the probability of an outcome is greater than what the odds imply. This means the bookmaker has underestimated the likelihood of the outcome, creating a positive expected value opportunity.

Accurate probability estimation requires research, statistical analysis, and experience. Consider team form, head-to-head records, injuries, weather conditions, and other relevant factors. Compare your estimates with implied probabilities from multiple bookmakers.

Yes, in the short term. Positive EV only guarantees profitability over a large sample size. Individual bets can still lose, and losing streaks are normal. The key is to make many positive EV bets over time.