Value Betting Calculator

Turning value betting edge into realistic long-term results

This value betting calculator links your estimated edge, average odds and betting frequency to expected monthly profit and variance. It helps you see whether your strategy is aggressive, realistic or too optimistic.

Why long-term perspective matters in value betting

Even with a solid edge, short-term results can be noisy. Several losing months in a row are possible, especially at higher odds. Focusing on sample size, not single days or weeks, is the key to staying disciplined and letting the math work in your favour.

How bet frequency affects your yield and profit

• More qualified bets per day mean your edge is applied more often, which increases expected monthly profit - as long as the edge is real.
• Chasing volume with lower-quality picks can easily destroy your edge and turn a winning strategy into a losing one.
• Use this calculator to compare different combinations of edge and volume so you can decide if your current schedule is sustainable.

Mindset and bankroll discipline for value bettors

• Accept that variance will create long losing streaks even when you are making profitable bets.
• Stick to a pre-defined staking plan instead of increasing stakes after losses or hot runs.
• Track your results and compare them with the calculator estimates to check whether your assumed edge is realistic.