Corners & Cards Predictor: Over/Under from Recent Matches

By Reviewed by Klara Vesela • Updated 2026-10-06

Pick any two teams. We read the corners and bookings from their latest competitive matches and turn them into over/under probabilities and fair odds.

Choose the match

Search for the home team and the away team. Home sides win a few more corners on average, and the model allows for that.

How the Corners & Cards Predictor works

For each team we take the most recent competitive matches that have official statistics. Friendlies, pre-season games and matches decided after extra time or on penalties are left out, because corner and card markets settle on 90 minutes.

Corners won and conceded per match become an attacking and a defensive corner rate. Small samples are pulled towards the average of both teams so one wild game does not dominate.

The home side's expected corners are its corner rate against the visitors' concession rate, with a small home boost. A Poisson model turns the expected numbers into over/under probabilities.

How cards are counted

We count every yellow and red card a team receives. A second yellow followed by a red therefore counts as two cards, which is how most bookmakers settle total cards markets.

Booking points markets (10 for a yellow, 25 for a red) are settled differently, so check your bookmaker's rules before comparing prices.

How to use it for betting

  1. Pick the home and away team and choose 5 or 10 matches.
  2. Compare the fair odds with your bookmaker's price. A higher bookmaker price than the fair odds can signal value.
  3. Check the match list: a cup tie against a weak side can inflate a team's corner numbers.
  4. Remember the referee: strict referees push card totals up, and this model does not know who is in charge.

Limitations

Corner counts vary more than a Poisson model expects, so very low and very high lines are less reliable than the middle ones.

The model does not adjust for the referee, opponent strength, league level, weather or motivation.

For goals, win/draw/loss and BTTS from the same matches, open the Form Analyzer.

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Form Analyzer
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Team Statistics Analysis
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Betting Odds vs Probability Guide

Frequently asked questions

From the official match statistics of each team's latest competitive games. Matches without statistics are skipped and the next one is used instead.

Many lower leagues and all friendlies are played without published statistics. We need at least three recent matches with corner data for each team.

No. We count yellow and red cards. A second yellow plus a red counts as two cards. Booking points markets use a different scale.

Ten matches is the default because corners swing a lot from game to game. Use five to check whether a recent change of coach or tactics shows up.

Fair odds are 100 divided by the probability, with no bookmaker margin. A bookmaker price above the fair odds may be value according to this model.

Not yet. Referees strongly influence card totals, so check who is in charge before betting on cards.