Every tracked match of the day, priced by the model and by the market. Where the model sees more than the bookmakers, it becomes a tip of the day.
A tip is pinned the moment it is found and keeps the price it was found at. Once the match ends, it is settled against the final score, so you can check every call we made today.
The model side comes from our prediction engine: each team's goals scored and conceded this season in its league, split home and away once there are enough matches, give both sides' expected goals, and a Poisson score model turns them into win, draw and away probabilities. A match where either team has played fewer than three league games is left out.
The market side is the average pre-match 1X2 price across every bookmaker in the feed (at least three), shown without names. We strip the bookmaker margin from those prices to get the market's own fair probability for each outcome.
Worked example: the model gives the home side 52%, the market average is 2.00. Expected value = 0.52 × 2.00 − 1 = +4.0%. The market's fair probability at 2.00 is 47.9%, so the edge is 4.1 points.
An outcome becomes a tip when its expected value reaches +5% and the model probability is at least 30%, which keeps long-shot noise out. One tip per match, at most ten per day, ranked by expected value. A pinned tip never changes; the live table below shows how the price moves after it was found. Odds move, small edges vanish and no model is right every time, so treat this as a starting point, not a promise.
A bet where the probability you believe in is higher than the probability implied by the odds. Here the belief comes from the model and the implied probability from the bookmaker average: when 0.52 × 2.00 is more than 1, the expected value is positive.
We show the average of many bookmakers at the time the tip was found, not a single book's live price. Your bookmaker may be higher or lower, and prices move all day. Compare before you bet.
It did not. Once a tip is pinned it stays on the page for the whole day with the numbers it was found at. What changes is the live table underneath, which shows the current evaluation of every match.
No tip service wins every day, and we make no promise about results. The day's record at the top of the page is settled with the final score so you can judge the hit rate yourself. Expect streaks in both directions.
The competitions we track for the rest of the football tools: the top European leagues, the Champions League, the Europa League and selected other leagues. Matches outside them are not evaluated.
The page is rebuilt every hour. A new tip is pinned when a match clears the thresholds, a finished match is settled, and tomorrow's list fills up during the evening.
Our tools are free and always will be — if they help you, you can support us with crypto.
La Liga
Racing Santander
vs
Real Madrid
